i realized i have developed an unhealthy attachment to the $AUDUSD….like a bad relationship….if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks, it’s probably a duck…but, the normal insane person keeps expecting Daffy to be a rabbit, or a toaster….whatever…you get the point….i am a smart person. i’m a decent technician, but for some reason i look at my own bearish analysis, and come to the conclusion that the best idea is to go long….sounds ludicrous, right?? But it’s been happening to me very regularly lately….Almost, like i’m not a complete person unless i have a loser Aussie position on….How/Why did this happen?? i found myself analyzing the AUDUSD and clearly it has been bearish and should be sold on rallies and that’s what i would tell any other trader that is what they should be doing….but somehow my emotions have gotten me long this currency pair over and over to have losses over and over….wtf is going on?? Don’t get me wrong, occasionally i would make a few pips on scalping on the long side, but then i would just convulsively keep getting back in until i was down substantially.
Here is the really ridiculous part….as if up to here isn’t ridiculous enough :-) So, about 12 years ago i had an Australian boyfriend….i adored him. He was gorgeous, funny and very talented and i loved his accent. Additionally, Australia is a beautiful, resource rich country, and though my eyes; it’s not run by idiots, and they don’t have a Central Bank that is printing the country into ruin….Please note, i have never been to Australia….lolol….but clearly i have the country on a pedestal, and perhaps it should be….but that doesn’t mean the currency is a buy when nearly every day lately it’s breaking through support levels….eventually it will be a buy, but that is not today….and that isn’t really the point anyway.
This all reminds me when i was a Stockbroker back in the late 1999-2000 when nearly everything was at stupid high prices and i told clients they should be taking their, at the time, huge profits in all the stocks where the prices shocked them…..they didn’t, for the most part…the argument most of my clients gave me was, “but, they are such good companies….” well, we all know how that ended, and if you don’t; not well. That all is a perfect example of attachment….which in trading can be our demise…i’ll keep it on me…can be my demise.
Awhile ago i made joke that i married my losers and had one night stands with my winners. Unfortunately, it has been very true, and lately the marrying part has mostly been with the AUD.
Yesterday, when i finally had my eyes opened to this, i made a pact with myself that at the very least i mustn’t trade against my own analysis…i post these great charts an twitter and then i go and do the opposite in my own account…Ugh…i also realized that this could be good subject matter for my first post on this new sight.
Now i’de like to talk about a trading bias….a trading bias is based on perceived fact…an intuitive interpretation of the macro fundamentals and the longer term technicals. Right now my bias is not based on fact….it is based on emotion….i am so upset about what is happening in the US, from the morons in Washington DC, to the Federal Reserve, who i believe are slowly, or maybe not so slowly destroying the United States. i don’t mean to turn this blog into a political rant, but this is what is in me and what is unfortunately is running me. Anyway, with these beliefs in the forefront of my mind, i just feel deeply, why would anybody want to own the US$ vs any other currency?? The way Melinda feels about the US is not what moves the FX markets….sounds obvious, right? For me, not so much.
Hopefully somebody out there identifies with this sort of trading insanity and it will help bringing this stuff into the light. And hopefully by writing this, and completely embarrassing myself publicly i will be able to move on and out of this debilitating way of thinking.
Thanks for reading….i hope maybe you found this useful, or at least you had a good laugh at my expense :-)
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